Klim Kostin review
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It's hard to imagine a more trying time in an NHLer's career than the first time he gets placed on waivers, unless it's the very next day when he discovers he has cleared and is headed for the minor leagues.
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In the first instance, it's the indignity of being cut from his team and being offered without compensation to any other takers around the league. In the second, it's the realization that none of the other 31 teams see him as an instant upgrade either.
St. Louis Blues power forward hopeful Klim Kostin endured that double indignity on Oct 07-08 of 2022. The last pick of the first round back in 2017, the 6’3, 215-lb. winger had played out his Entry Level Contract and with it, his waiver exemption. He’d had a cup of NHL coffee in each of that pact's 3 seasons, including a 40-game look in 2021-22 (4-5-9, -3 in 9 minutes a night). He then signed a one-year "show me" extension for NHL minimum. But when Blues camp broke in the fall of ’22 it broke without him.
The next day revealed nobody else wanted him either. Surely a low point for any young player, or a competitor of any age for that matter.
Just a day later, however, Kostin's career took a new direction. The Edmonton Oilers had their own player at a similar crossroads, a fellow Russian at that in all-purpose defenceman Dmitri Samorukov. He too was waived on the 7th and cleared on the 8th. By the 9th Oilers GM Ken Holland and his Blues counterpart Doug Armstrong agreed both players might benefit from a change of scenery.
The trade was one for one.
One of the advantages of such a transaction — indeed, the very definition of a "minor league trade" — is that both players had already cleared waivers, allowing their new team the flexibility to send their new acquisition to their minor league affiliate for a while to show his wares and earn his spot on the call-up list. So it was for both protagonists of this trade, each of whom did eventually get the call, though it was Kostin who made the far bigger impact.
First it was a 5-week stint with Bakersfield Condors, during which time he put up some crooked numbers (9 GP, 2-2-4, -4, 15 PiM). Then on Nov 14 disaster hit the big club when their premier power forward Evander Kane suffered a gruesome skate cut that would sideline him for 10 weeks.
Kane's bad fortune was Kostin's good, as he could scarcely have picked an Oiler whose overall game more closely resembled his own than Kane. Big, strong on the walls, powerful shot, devil-may-care playing style.
With not just roster space available but cap space as well, Holland chose to recall both Kostin and fellow waiver casualty Mattias Janmark to the big club. Both would remain for the rest of the season, even after Kane himself returned to the line-up in late January.
By then both Kostin and Janmark were fixtures on an effective line with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. Other than the skillful RNH, Kostin would spend most of his ice time with other bottom-sixers like Janmark, Derek Ryan, Ryan McLeod and Nick Bjugstad. He was the only regular forward on the team at season's end who hadn't established a significant role on either special team.
"The Real Klim Shady" made the most of his 10 minutes a night at even strength, scoring 11-10-21, +12 in just 57 games. He emerged as one of the team's most influential bangers and crashers, leading the squad in hits (157), fights (4) and penalty minutes (66). Not a bad contribution for a 23-year-old post-waiver pickup at NHL minimum.
Ultimately, the player Kostin replaced in the Oilers line-up was not so much EKane as former agent of chaos Zack Kassian, dealt at the 2022 Draft in a cap dump. And even there, Kostin's comparable is not so much the late-career Kassian (who played 51 games in Arizona this past season, scoring 2-0-2, -18 with 50 PiM and just 32 hits), as the pugnacious younger version of that player.
(Indeed, I am far from the first to compare these two; my fellow Newfoundlander and "icon of the Oilogosphere Dennis King hilariously refers to Kostin as "Klim Kassian". He's not wrong.)
When the Oilers acquired the original Kassian in a similar "change of scenery" trade (for Ben Scrivens) midway through the 2015-16 season, Zack too was a former first-round pick with a power forward's tool kit: size, speed, skill and aggression. For the next 6½ years he would occupy something of a wild card spot up front, an erratic player whose very unpredictability was a factor for opponents to reckon with.
Kassian's first full season in Edmonton in 2016-17 makes an interesting comparison with that of Kostin. Both were productive bottom-sixers with an aptitude for stirring things up. (Kassian's most common linemates were Mark Letestu, Benoit Pouliot, RNH, Matt Hendricks, David Desharnais, Drake Caggiula. These were before the years he lined up with both Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl to produce some decent offensive numbers but with plenty of chaos at the defensive end of the sheet)
Significantly, in the featured seasons both players were on 1-year, "show me" contracts, though Kassian's was for double the amount.
Both Kassian in 2016-17 and Kostin in 2022-23 scored 100% of their points at even strength, so we’ll focus primarily on that game state when evaluating their individual offensive performance. Further down, crooked numbers in various departments related to physicality are based on full season stats in all situations. In all cases, "Rank" refers to team rank among Oilers forwards with at least 300 even strength minutes; 13 such in Kassian's season, 14 in Kostin's. Top-3 rankings are highlighted.
The last set of numbers is self-explanatory.
Fair to say that Kassian, some 28 months older at the comparison point, was considerably more advanced along his career path, having also made the NHL at a younger age. At the end of the respective seasons, Kassian had 313 career games, Kostin just 103. And while each was at the end of his contract and a Restricted Free Agent, Kass had just 1 RFA year left, Kos still has 3.
Still, it would be reasonable of Kostin's camp to expect a decent raise off a solid season, moreover the player now has arbitration rights if he doesn't like the direction of negotiations. Something the Oilers will have to consider when it comes time to issue a qualifying offer.
This player checks a lot of boxes: big, fast, rugged, takes care of teammates, can score a bit, and oh yeah, became a major fan favourite.
While it's fair to guess that his shooting percentage of 19.6% (11 goals on 56 shots) is unlikely to be repeated, he does possess a powerful wrist shot that was seen to overpower NHL goalies on occasion. Among them Joonas Korpisalo of Los Angeles, who Kostin beat for the third-period game-winner in Game 2 of their first-round playoff series, then twice more in Edmonton's narrow 5-4 win that closed out the Kings. He finished the playoffs with a respectable 12 GP, 3-2-5, +2, more or less on pace with his fine regular season. Just another arrow in his negotiating quiver.
All that said, a 10-minute-a-night player who plays only at even strength shouldn't cost a fortune. Ideally an extension could be worked out in the days leading up to the deadline for qualifying offers (Jun 25), the issuance of which is the moment the club loses control over the process. After last summer's experiences with arbitration-eligible players, Ken Holland would prefer not to get to that point.
Expectations for 2023-24: Sign a fair extension, then come back and prove he can do it again or even improve on his breakthrough season. There may be a big contract somewhere in Kostin's future, but it would be premature to suggest he's quite there yet. Best that he first consolidate his game with the NHL team that eventually gave him his big chance.
LEAVINS: 9 Things
STAPLES: Hockey insider on what others are saying about Oilers
McCURDY: Rising young pivot represents a tricky negotiation for Oilers
STAPLES: Big centre likely not staying with Oilers; who will take his role?
McCURDY: Oilers make first signing of the off-season
Follow me on Twitter @BruceMcCurdy
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included Klim Kostin Evander Kane Mattias Janmark Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Derek Ryan Ryan McLeod Nick Bjugstad Connor McDavid Leon Draisaitl Expectations for 2023-24: LEAVINS: 9 Things STAPLES: Hockey insider on what others are saying about Oilers McCURDY: Rising young pivot represents a tricky negotiation for Oilers STAPLES: Big centre likely not staying with Oilers; who will take his role? McCURDY: Oilers make first signing of the off-season Follow me on Twitter @BruceMcCurdy